Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 032056
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
256 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE. RADAR ANALYSIS HAS DEMONSTRATED SMALL HAIL WITH CURRENT
STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WIND. THE BEST COVERAGE FOR THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH NATRONA AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES SEEMING MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...CONDITIONS WILL WORK TO DRY OUT
FROM THE WEST...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE WEAKENING
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.

ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THESE
SYSTEMS...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING AREA MAY SEE A SLIGHT WARMING
IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A CLOUDY...COOL AND WET PERIOD OVERALL WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NOW...AS THE MODELS HAVE KEPT
THAT LAST UPPER LOW IN THE AREA LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLING ALOFT...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
HIGH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE 12Z GFS RUN DIPS SOME -6C TEMPERATURES
INTO JOHNSON COUNTY EARLY NEXT SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD BRING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT 5500FT BUT ABOUT THE ONLY THING WE CAN
COUNT ON THIS EARLY IS THAT THINGS WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER
TO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WILL THEN DIP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
DIVIDE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING NATRONA AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF STORM ACTIVITY OVER KCPR...WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORM
ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING
DRIER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AFTER 18Z MONDAY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORM
ACTIVITY...WITH ENHANCED TURBULENCE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 04Z THIS
EVENING FOR THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY. GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATES A BRIEF LOWERING OF CLOUD
COVER...POTENTIALLY SOME VALLEY FOG AFTER 12Z...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED AND IS COVERED BY VCFG FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
CURRENT TAF SET.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONG WIND AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME STORM ACTIVITY. STORM
ACTIVITY MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO AREA
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA. KJAC WILL SEE MORE
ACTIVITY OVER ITS SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
INCREASED TURBULENCE OVER THESE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL REINTRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KRKS...KBPI...AND KPNA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL PUSH EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT...WITH
DRYING ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THESE MOISTURE PUSHES...WITH EASTERN WYOMING SEEING A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN TOMORROW WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A COUPLE
DEGREES OF WARMING. GENERALLY CALM WIND EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHER THAN JOHNSON AND EASTERN NATRONA COUNTY WHICH MAY
SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM





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