Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 060459
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1058 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY
FOCUSED IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS ACTIVITY  AFTER SUNSET. AS
THIS BATCH OF RAIN IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOVES INTO THE PICTURE
THIS EVENING...WE WILL ALSO SEE HEIGHT FALLS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE TWO
FACTORS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL CAUSE A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
INTENSIFY OVER NORTHERN WYOMING. AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH...WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHWEST WYOMING OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PICTURE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LEFTOVER SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
NATRONA COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE RAINFALL DIMINISHING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST THROUGH COLORADO INTO
WYOMING. WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN PLACE.
SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. ALONG WITH THAT WILL COME MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 12Z...AREAS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN MANY AREAS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...SHOWERS WILL END AROUND 12Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AFTER
00Z THURSDAY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST WY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FIRE ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY
WETTING RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COX
LONG TERM...COX
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...COX





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