Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 280941
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
341 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

OUR WEATHER SYSTEM THAT DROPPED MEASURABLE RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE WILL BE WRAPPING UP OVER NEW MEXICO AND PULLING AWAY
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM CONTINUES
TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT TODAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL AND MOIST SIDE WITH
PATCHY MORNING FOG EXPECTED IN ANY AREAS WITH SATURATED GROUND OR
SNOW COVER. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER NICE WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE MODELS ARE DRIER WITH MAY DAY FRIDAY EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
PROBABLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS
ON THIS 00Z RUN ARE A BIT STRONGER WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHERN WY SUNDAY MIDDAY THEN PUSHING SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN ADDITION THE MODELS WISH TO INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MORE COVERAGE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE REGION. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A DRIER FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY
MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT TUESDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
FOR TEMPS...THE MODELS ARE WARMING THINGS UP NICELY ON FRIDAY. A TAD
WARMER ON SATURDAY...THEN COLDER ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL ZONES WITH LESS COOLING IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE FRONT
WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT. THE ECMWF IS COOLER ON MONDAY THAN THE GFS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE. IN THE WEST MONDAY
HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. THEN WARMER ALL AREAS NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING COULD LINGER TO ABOUT
16Z ACROSS THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN IMPACTING KDUB...WHILE THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE THE POSSIBLITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AT
KCPR THROUGH 15Z. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING...WITH ONLY SKC
TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

PATCHY FOG COULD IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL FOG/LOW CLOUDS AT ANY
TERMINAL...AND WILL HAVE VCFG AT MOST/ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO BE
ACROSS EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY INCLUDING KRKS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

WARM AND RAIN FREE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS IN MOST AREAS WITH SOME
20 MPH GUSTS ACROSS RAWLINS DISPATCH...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ANOTHER...MUCH QUICKER SYSTEM GRAZING THE AREA WHICH COULD
INCREASE WINDS TO ABOVE 25MPH ON THURSDAY BUT WITH MORE MODERATE
HUMIDITIES IF THE CURRENT COLD FRONT TIMING ENDS UP BEING
CORRECT...WITH THE BULK OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BY SUNSET ON
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS FRONT AS
WELL...THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING WITH THE FRONT
MOST OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE WET. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK
INTO THE 70S ON FRIDAY WITH POTENTIALLY VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN






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