Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 172123
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
323 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OF RAIN
AND SNOW. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECAILLY ON CASPER MOUNTAIN AND THE SOUTHEAST
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AROUND SOUTH PASS.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING OVERALL.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM FROM CANADA WILL FINALLY KICK
OUR RESIDENT CLOSED LOW OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ENCOURAGE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES IN
LATE IN THE NIGHT...LIKELY KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS GOING THORUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING IN NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID
WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND COME ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS RATHER MESSY...COOL AND
UNSETTLED WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM
RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM. WAS
PRETTY GENEROUS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
BOTH GLOBAL MODELS BRING SOMETHING THROUGH AND KEEP IT AROUND FOR
A WHILE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCED IN -SHRASN...WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCED IN -SHRASN BR WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
END OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY VICINITY AND SOUTH OF A KCPR- KLND-KRKS
LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TERMINALS NORTH OF THIS LINE WILL SEE
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF WYOMING.  IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.  IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL OBSCURE
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OF RAIN
AND SNOW.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW WITH
POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MOUNTAINS.  CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER IN THE NORTH
AND WEST. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE WITH THE CONVECTIVE LIFT
WITH GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL OR BETTER EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL LOCALLY
CAUSE LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER










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