Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 162316
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
247 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A CUT OFF
LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND RAIN...RAIN SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO MAINLY EASTERN
SWEETWATER...SOUTHERN FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTY. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND PERIODIC WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH BREAKS IN THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL DO NOT
EXPECT ENOUGH IMPACT OVERALL FOR ADVISORIES ON CASPER MOUNTAIN OR
OVER THE GREEN AND RATTLESNAKE RANGES AS MELTING IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR DURING THE BREAKS IN THE SNOWFALL. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...DECREASING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. THE SOUTHEAST AREA WILL BE THE COLDEST...WHILE
TO THE NORTH AND WEST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER COLORADO...IT WILL WRAP
SOME MORE MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR WEST THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH BUT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE I25
CORRIDOR TO POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS FREMONT AND SWEETWATER
COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A KICKER SYSTEM COMING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN STORM TRACK ALONG OUR BORDER WITH CANADA...THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING DOWN ON SATURDAY AND ENCOURAGE OUR RESIDENT CLOSED
LOW TO FINALLY MOVE ON INTO THE PLAINS. THIS KICKER SYSTEM COULD
ENCOURAGE SOME SHOWERS AS IT SWINGS ON THROUGH...WITH SOME SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE FOR ANOTHER DAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID
WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST AND COME ASHORE
LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE STILL EXIST SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN A DOUBLE BARREL LOW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE ECMWF SPLITS THE ENERGY...EITHER
WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NOT BE BREAKING ANY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS NEXT WEEK AND WE COULD HAVE A FEW MORE CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NATRONA...SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FREMONT AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA WILL BE PREVAILING VFR . LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
RIVERS AND LAKES FROM 03Z TO 16Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL VICINITY AND NORTH OF KJAC WHERE A N-NE
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE SW QUARTER OF WY...VICINITY AND SOUTH OF KBPI...THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY. GUSTY NE SURFACE WINDS AT 25-35KTS WITH GUSTS TO
40KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR...VICINITY
KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH CLEARING
NORTH AND WEST.  SWEETWATER...SOUTHERN FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTY
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT WET SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA WILL HAVE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW WITH POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL.

TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA...CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITH THE
WINDS STEADILY DECREASING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. WITH SUNSHINE THE
NORTH AND WEST WILL WARM ON FRIDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
WITH AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSAL BECOMING GOOD MOST AREAS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER








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