Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 290545
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY (ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT)

UPR SW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT JUST TOUCHING THE CORNER OF NW WY AT
NOON...RACING EWD. WINDS REALLY STARTING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS SFC WARMS...WINDS ALOFT AND P GRAD INCREASE. RAISED
ADDITIONAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO THE CURRENT FCST FOR ZONES 2 AND
3...ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...WITH GUSTS 70 TO 80 MPH
ALREADY STARTING TO RAISE THEIR UGLY HEADS. PRECIP ATTM IS CURRENTLY
MAINLY N OF THE FA...AND ALONG TO SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CHANGED FCST SHOWERS TO SHOWERS W/ ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE CWA
AS INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE INDICES GROW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MAYBE MAINLY DRY THUNDER EVERYWHERE BUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
JUST GOING WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR NOW. STILL...WILL NOT BE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ACCUM PRECIP AT ANY RATE. FIRE DANGER WOULD BE HIGH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA EXCEPT THE MOUNTAINS IF ALL FUELS WERE
CRITICAL. HOWEVER...BECAUSE ONLY A FEW FWX ZONES ARE CRITICAL...WILL
STICK WITH CURRENT FCST...WITH FWX ZONES 280 281 AND 283 AS RED FLAG
THRU 03Z TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...UPR WAVE AND SFC FRONT THRU THIS EVE...WITH SECONDARY
UPR WAVE AND SFC FRONT PUSHING THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS NERN WY AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECREASING
AFTER 09Z. SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUD OUT
WEST...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHC FOR PRECIP THRU THE DAY. POST
FRONTAL WINDS UNDER BUILDING HIGH P AND AND A MUCH MORE RELAXED P
GRAD WILL ALSO DECREASE GREATLY COMPARED TO THOSE OF TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
GENERAL WARMING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST ON MONDAY
WITH CONTINUED WARMING...OVER AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST AND WINDIEST DAY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
THE CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SIGNIFICANT
COOLING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOULD
BECOME THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

A THIN SMOKE LAYER FROM A LARGE WILDFIRE IN EASTERN MONTANA MAY
LINGER VCNTY AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 INCLUDING VCNTY KCPR THROUGH
12Z.  OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEARING SKIES.  A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WIND...WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING...AS A SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE BRING A COMBINATION OF GUSTY STRONG WIND...ALONG WITH
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MANY AREAS WITH A LACK OF SNOW
COVER...WITH DISPATCH ZONES 283...281 AND 280...WHERE FUELS ARE
CRITICAL...UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.
OVERALL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










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