Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 032148
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
348 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...BROAD AND LOW AMPLITUDE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK AND SOMEWHAT MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THIS SLOWLY INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN LOCATED AT THE USUAL
SUSPECTS...NAMELY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF UTAH...BUT ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALSO MOVED THROUGH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH...AS WELL AS A COUPLE ISOLATED CELLS
THROUGH THE SALT LAKE VALLEY. THE SALT LAKE STORMS BROUGHT BRIEF
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 45 MPH...BUT THAT LOCAL
ACTIVITY HAS CALMED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS OF 21Z. IN
GENERAL...ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS SURVIVING/FORMING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A PACIFIC LOW SLIDES THROUGH ARIZONA ON MONDAY...THEN
EXITS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THIS LOW WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOME
SYNOPTIC- SCALE FORCING FROM THE LOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AFTER THAT LOW COMPLETELY EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...THE
NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PLAYER WILL BE A LARGER AND SLOWER MOVING
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THIS STORM WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THOUGH AN INITIAL COLD
FRONTAL PUSH IS POSSIBLE INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WEST COAST.  BOTH MODELS
DIG LOW SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA...THEN EJECT IT NORTHEAST ACROSS GREAT
BASIN...THOUGH ECMWF IS FASTER WITH SYSTEM MOVEMENT.

SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND BASE OF TROUGH
AND THROUGH REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BULK OF
FORECAST AREA.  MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY AROUND A HALF AN INCH.  BEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
UPPER JET NOSES INTO REGION AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

BASE OF TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.  WITH
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT...WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 8000
FT...OR PERHAPS A BIT LOWER...ON SATURDAY.

AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...EXPECT LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER AT LEAST
NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AVIATION CONCERNS FOR KSLC THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD ARE
FOR SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...PRIMARILY THIS
EVENING...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.  IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...SHOULD SEE A SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOP BY 03Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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