Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 021545
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
945 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT
MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE TO ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. THIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAVORED
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE RAFT RIVERS AND THE
OQUIRRHS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR...WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN UTAH
AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING DOWNWIND VALLEYS. THE 12Z SLC SOUNDING
INDICATED A INVERTED V TYPE PATTERN...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE RAFT RIVERS
AND TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WASATCH/UINTA COUNTY WYOMING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS
COULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH 22Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL COULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF THESE
STORMS...MOST LIKELY BY GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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