Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 130237
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
837 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST
THIS EVE WITH A DRY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND A MODEST SURFACE
GRADIENT KEEPING LOCALLY BREEZY NORTH WINDS GOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY DROP OFF AFTER DARK AND THE
RIDGE CROSSES THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PATCHY THIN CIRRUS
AT TIMES.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP
TO HARD FREEZE LEVELS TONIGHT IN A FEW OF THE COLDER NORTHERN
VALLEYS DEEMED ACTIVE. THIS INCLUDES THE CACHE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
UTAH COUNTY AND EASTERN JUAB COUNTY IN THE AREAS FROM ABOUT
SANTAQUIN TO NEPHI. WILL LEAVE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD BY TOMORROW MORNING AND OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT PAC TROF APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS NEXT
COLD WAVE DIGS THRU THE PACNW STATES AND INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
MON NIGHT THRU TUE AND IS FORECAST TO SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
INTO UT DURING THE AFTN.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PRECEDE THIS FRONT. THE SHARP
THERMAL CONTRAST THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FRONT DUE TO ITS MID
AFTN ARRIVAL ACROSS WRN UT SHOULD DRIVE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THIS FEATURE INTO THE CWA. THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS MAY
NOT LAST TOO LONG ACROSS NW UT WHERE PRECIP IS FORECAST TO ALSO
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
EAST WELL INTO TUE NIGHT. THE EXISTING HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA REMAINS IN EFFECT AS WELL.

THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO
THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NWRN UT NOT LONG AFTER PRECIP STARTS BUT
IMPACT ON VALLEY TRAVEL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT GREAT. THE
NRN MTNS HOWEVER WILL SEE A PERIOD OF BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS
RIGHT WITH THE FRONT AND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND IT IN HEAVY
FALLING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL SERIOUSLY IMPACT TRAVEL
OVER ALL MTN PASSES AND EVEN POSSIBLY ALONG THE WASATCH BACK FOR
A TIME TUE AFTN AND EVE.

ALTHO SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR A BIT MARGINAL FOR A WARNING EVENT
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND
WOULD SUPPORT A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AT LEAST THE NRN MTNS AND
THE EXISTING WINTER STORM WATCH SEEMS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAST THIS TROF CLOSES
OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW AND JUST WHERE THAT LOW WILL END UP. HOWEVER IT
WILL BE MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
COLDER AIRMASS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE CWA REGARDLESS OF
JUST WHERE THE LOW ENDS UP.

NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 03-04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR UTZ011>013-019>021.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR UTZ007>010-517.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     UTZ001>006-014>016.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR UTZ001-004.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR UTZ518.

WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     WYZ021.

&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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