Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 260412
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1012 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...SHORT TERM TO INCLUDE FOG AND REDUCE POPS IN SOUTHERN
UTAH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BEGINNING
MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.



&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING JET STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH THE
STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE REDEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE
THE JET LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH
OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH IS SHIFTING INTO IDAHO
WITH ITS EXPANSIVE LIFT UNDER THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET
MOVING INTO IDAHO AS WELL. RADAR SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS AT LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE AS ECHOES MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO WEST OF THE AXIS AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
WASATCH FRONT AFTER ABOUT 08-09Z TONIGHT. THE NAM12 IS HANDLING
THIS FEATURE RATHER WELL AND THE GFS HINTS AT THE SAME IDEA WITH
AN INCREASE IN PRECIP BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS HOLDS TRUE THE
I-15 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS FROM FILLMORE NORTHWARD.

BASED ON ABOVE DISCUSSION HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER TO 100 PERCENT
JUST ABOUT CWA WIDE...THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH AND WEST
BORDERS WHERE SOME BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HAVE REMOVED
LIGHTNING FROM THE FORECAST AS PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME MAINLY
STRATIFORM AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST AND AIR MASS VERY
MOIST HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT ALONG THE I-15
CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT MOUNTAINS FROM ABOUT FILLMORE NORTHWARD TO
OGDEN FOR TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS LOOKED REASONABLE IN THE AREA BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME BIGGER AMOUNTS OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT AND MOUNTAINS. ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE
LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED THIS
EVENING AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON
NORTHERLY FLOW LATER TONIGHT.

THE CAMERAS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SNOW OR SLUSH ON ROADS ABOVE 8000 FT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATE TONIGHT AND
THAT IS WHEN THE SNOW LEVELS COULD LOWER TO NEAR 6000-6500 FEET
BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON ROADS BELOW 7000 FEET.

HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AS UDOT CAMERAS AND SOME
OBSERVATION SITES INDICATING FOG.


&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL NOT DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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