Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 272036
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
236 PM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLY FORMING IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
TO BREEZY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MPJ

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LONG-RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TREASURE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY BUT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGE. DRIER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WEAK PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND COVERAGE SO HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE PLAINS AND CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MLV

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1740Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE AT KHLN/KBZN EARLY TUESDAY...BUT DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WRITE IN TAFS. WILL RECONSIDER ADDING
FOG TO TAFS WITH THE EVENING PACKAGES. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  37  76  45  76 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  33  74  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
HLN  36  76  44  74 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  30  72  41  74 /   0   0   0  10
WEY  22  67  28  68 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  33  73  40  74 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  34  76  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  36  73  44  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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