Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 170255
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
855 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE HI-LINE. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL AGAIN CLEAR OVER NORTHERN MONTANA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2340Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WEAK, KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.  COULSTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING
CLEAR...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SE INTO
BC/AB FRIDAY NIGHT...FLATTENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS ENERGY SWEEPING SE THROUGH MT ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS AND CANADIAN COLD FRONT
TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY...SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AS THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND CENTRAL MT MTNS
WHERE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MT
WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN SW MT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOENISCH

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A TOUCH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  70  36  52 /   0   0  10  60
CTB  36  69  32  51 /   0   0  20  50
HLN  34  68  39  55 /   0   0   0  30
BZN  30  65  34  58 /   0   0   0  30
WEY  24  58  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
DLN  30  64  34  59 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  36  71  40  56 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  33  65  38  51 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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