Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 160456
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SNOW OF YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. MID CLOUDS ARE STILL OVER THE BOZEMAN
AREA BUT SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY
FOG BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...HAVE LEFT FOG IN THE WEATHER
GRID BUT HAVE CHANGED IT FROM AREAS TO PATCHY. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY AND CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION IS WANING. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0450Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPING AT KBZN/KLWT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THE TEMPERATURE AT KBZN IS
NEARING THE DEWPOINT WITH THIS UPDATE..AND EXPECT FOG TO FORM HERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DENSE FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBZN FOR A FEW
HOURS NEAR SUNRISE. FOG ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KLWT. NUTTER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 200 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SLOWLY DIGS FROM SOUTHWEST
WYOMING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...DRAGGING MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT.MEANWHILE A POSITIVE
TILT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEANS INTO MONTANA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH IT. LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND EASTERN FERGUS COUNTY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING BENEATH
CLEARING SKIES. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RECEIVED...COOL
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING SKY COVER...AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TFX CWA.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW WITH A WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. BRITTON

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. TO THE WEST...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMALS AGAIN FRIDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION BEING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MT. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EC
MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...EXCEPT MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  29  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  30  60  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  28  57  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  22  52  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  20  46  21  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  23  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  31  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  53  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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