Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 262039
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
239 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF THAT HAS KEPT EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION
TODAY CONTINUING TO SLOWLY EXIT EASTWARD. THE WIDESPREAD OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SINCE WEBCAMS AND WEATHER
OBSERVER REPORTS CONFIRM ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN- AND SNOWFALL
(DEPENDING ON ELEVATION) AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED, WE
HAVE CANCELLED THE EARLIER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THREE-DAY PERIOD OF GREAT SPRING
CONDITIONS BEGINS TOMORROW MORNING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE,
CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, HEADS INLAND AND MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN ON TUES, BRINGING MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
FROM CURRENT NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO WEST- SOUTHWEST, DRIVING A
SIGNIFICANT JUMP IN TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE LOW-TO- MID 60S TOMORROW AND THE UPPER 70S ON TUES.
WARANAUSKAS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVING TO EASTERN MONTANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
TROF APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FIND THE TROF ALREADY OVER EASTERN
MONTANA AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE PLAINS. THE
MODELS BEGIN TO OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY. THOUGH THEY
ALL HAVE GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS HAVE DOWN SLOPE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A WEAK UPPER TROF THROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
SATURDAY BY KEEPING THE PLAINS DRY AND DEVELOPING SOME MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS. SAME SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY AS THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS
TRY TO DEVELOP UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS
FASTER WITH AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WHILE THE PLAINS
CONTINUE TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1745Z. WIDESPREAD VFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED -RASN NEAR
KHLN/KLWT/KBZN.  OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM LOWER CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS RECEIVING PRECIPITATION. SHOULD SEE PRECIP
COME TO AN END AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TROF AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
HEAD EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STEADILY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST STARTING MON MORNING, BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES NEXT 72 HRS. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  31  64  37  76 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  28  64  33  75 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  31  64  37  76 /  10   0   0   0
BZN  25  59  31  71 /  30   0   0   0
WEY  24  58  26  66 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  28  61  34  73 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  27  66  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  27  62  36  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.