Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 252353
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THRU MONDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE DRIER AND
MILDER AIR RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH COLD AIR CURRENTLY
ALOFT OVER THE REGION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND A BIT HEAVIER AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THRU. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO VALLEY FLOORS IN MANY AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR NOW...NO
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SNOWFALL ON IMPACTED ROADWAYS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A GREAT FALLS TO LEWISTOWN
LINE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY END ON SUNDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN. BY
MONDAY IT WILL BE A NICE SPRING DAY...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES.
BRUSDA

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND
MILD AS A POSITIVE TILT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN MONTANA AS AN
UPPER TROF APPROACHES NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
THIS FEATURE THAN EITHER THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODELS BUT THE MODELS
AGREE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FIND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO THE WEST COAST. AGAIN, PRECIPITATION BOTH DAYS
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE MODELS DEPICT...WITH SOME VARIATION IN
DETAILS...AN UPPER TROF APPROACHING WESTERN MONTANA SATURDAY. WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND AMPLE LIFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON
READINGS SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 2353Z. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA TERMINALS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BUT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  50  33  64 /  20  40  10   0
CTB  32  51  34  63 /  20  30  10   0
HLN  35  49  31  62 /  50  70  10   0
BZN  36  47  28  57 /  80  90  20  10
WEY  30  41  23  51 /  80  80  10   0
DLN  33  45  27  56 /  90  90  10  10
HVR  36  53  36  65 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  35  44  32  58 /  20  40  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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