Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 161522
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
922 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TODAY FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. NO UPDATES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. HOENISCH

&&

.AVIATION... UPDATED 1200Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THRU THE PERIOD. THE AIRMASS SEEMS JUST DRY ENOUGH THAT FOG
SEEMS NOT TO BE DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. THUS I REMOVED IT FOR NOW.
BRUSDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 600 AM MDT THU APR 16 2015

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE BUILDING
EAST OVER THE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AIRMASS
WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAINING STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
BY MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 6AM SATURDAY AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONES. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AND THEN DROP BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ZONES. ZELZER

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER
IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS YET SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MT. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE COOL
ON SUNDAY...THEN A NICE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL A TOUCH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BRUSDA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  34  68  39 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  61  35  68  38 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  58  33  67  38 /   0   0   0  10
BZN  52  29  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  45  23  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  52  29  62  33 /   0   0   0  10
HVR  62  36  69  41 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  53  33  63  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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