Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 031748
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1148 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WITH
UPPER TROF TRAVERSING SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...TROF IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH HIGH BUILDING THROUGH MT INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS. RADAR RETURNS SHOW A FEW -SHRA OVER SERN MT/SWRN ND.

TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SEWD PRODUCING BREEZY NLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR OUR CWFA. AS BL WINDS TURN MORE NE/E
LATER THIS AFTN...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER NERN WY AND THE
BLKHLS ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. BETTER CHANCE FOR
PCPN COMES TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER ND.

MONDAY...PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MRNG BEFORE UPPER
ENERGY DEPARTS. SE WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS SFC HIGH
SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LEE TROF DEVELOPS OVER MT/WY.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
OUR FAR SRN ZONES AS SHORT WAVE EJECTS NEWD FROM A DESERT SW LOW.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. GFS AND ECM ARE STILL SHOWING MUCH OF THE PRECIP
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF QPF FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS WRN SD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...AND BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LOW BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED NEXT SATURDAY JUST W/SW OF THE CWA. IF THIS PANS
OUT...THIS MAIN SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF QPF.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE...IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

-SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BLKHLS TO NE WY THIS AFTN/EVNG...THEN
INTO WRN SD LATE TNGT/MON MRNG. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR PRECIP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...13



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