Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 192039
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
239 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS SHORTWAVE TROF SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST INTO
MINNESOTA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SKIES ARE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO MONTANA. IN BETWEEN...TIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

A MAINLY DRY AND COOL PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CANADA TAKES OVER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...AS FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP BL MIXING OCCUR DURING THE DAY TIME
HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET AND CLOUDS WILL
ALSO DISSIPATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND LOWER 30S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TOWARD
MORNING.

TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY...THOUGH A BIT MILDER OVER WESTERN
AREAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...STRONGEST
TOWARD CENTRAL SD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN GENERAL MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA WILL SPIN SEVERAL MOISTURE
STARVED SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THE SD PLAINS. PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...LARGELY MISSING THE CWA...BUT
HAVE RETAINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN PICK
BACK UP AGAIN ON THE SD PLAINS MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS AFTERNOON CU/SC DISSIPATES TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-
     002-012>014-025-026-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON


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