Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 040810
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
210 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. A
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS LIFTING INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPANDING SHRA ACRS NERN WY/BLKHLS/SWRN SD. AT
THE SFC...HIGH IS LOCATED OVER ND WITH ELY BL FLOW ACRS THE CWFA.

TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SHRA THIS MRNG OVER
NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD...WITH MAJORITY OF PCPN THEN LIFTING INTO
NWRN SD THIS AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REST OF THE CWFA WILL
GENERALLY BE PCPN FREE AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...EXCEPT FOR
SOME LATE DAY SHRA POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO FAR SWRN/SCNTRL SD AS
LEAD SHORT WAVE FROM UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA LIFTS THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...AND HAVE GENERALLY UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES GIVEN EXPECTED E/SE BL FLOW AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER. WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHANCES ACRS SCNTRL SD OVERNIGHT
GIVEN CNTRL PLAINS ENERGY.

TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS
EARLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA) SHIFTING INTO
THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EARLY ON...BUT PCPN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE
SOUTH DURG THE DAY AS ENERGY FROM CNTRL ROCKIES LOW EXTENDS NWD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SUBSTANTIAL ROUND OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL
LIFT NWD THROUGH THE CWFA AS CNTRL ROCKIES LOW BECOMES MORE IN
PHASE WITH STRONG UPPER TROF OVER THE PAC NW. BEST CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT QPF WILL BE ACRS WRN/CNTRL SD WITH LESSER CHANCES AS
YOU HEAD WWD INTO NERN WY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MID-WEEK AS A STRONG WAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL CONUS. NAM HAS A
STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA WED AFTN/EVG. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME PLACES
COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS LATELY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
LESS PRECIPITATION IS RECEIVED.

CYCLONIC FLOW FROM STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
INCREASE SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH
THE ECM AND GFS ARE WRAPPING COLDER AIR AROUND THE LOW INTO THE
CWA...WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 0C FOR THE ECM AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW
0C FOR THE GFS. THIS COULD MEAN SOME PRECIP FALLS AS SNOW...BUT
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. EITHER WAY PARTS OF THE AREA COULD
SEE ANOTHER ONE OR MORE INCHES OF QPF.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE...IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. COOLER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTHEAST WY
INTO WESTERN SD THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS PRECIPITATION DECREASES MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SD AS MORE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE


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