Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 211727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN ND TO SOUTHEAST SD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE TROF COVERING MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM WESTERN ND TO
EASTERN SD. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. KUDX RADAR SHOWING
MOSTLY WEAK RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST SD...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SOME
FLURRIES. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WITH LIGHT WEST OR
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN MOST AREAS.

00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME COOLER AIR
WILL BACK INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
MILDER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST SD TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD. WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GOOD MIXING
AGAIN TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE
CWA...BUT WILL GO WITH SOME EARLY MORNING FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY
IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.

SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY ON. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S...WARMEST
OVER NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWEST SD. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY
LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES IN
DAY TO DAY WEATHER. WEAK UPPER FLOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH RIDGING IN NORTHERN JET STREAM. WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. WITH WEAK FORCING AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SMALL
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHERN STREAM TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...MCKEMY


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