Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190158
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. THE
STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG SFC HIGH OVER ONTARIO
CANADA...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE MASON DIXON
LINE...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
FA...AND SHOULD SEE MSLP RISE A FEW MB OVERNIGHT AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SE AND PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH INTO NC. EARLIER SHOWERS
AFFECTING INTERIOR NE NC ARE STILL ONGOING INTO EAST CENTRAL VA
BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE AKQ CWA (AND SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OTHER THAN HIGH
CLOUDS...DID HAVE SOME BKN LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST IN NE NC
EARLIER BUT THESE HAVE GENLY DISSIPATED. OVERALL...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VA NEAR THE NC BORDER. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE
OCEAN INTO SE VA TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL AS EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASES. LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 F ON THE ERN SHORE TO THE
UPPER 50S ACRS NE NC AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HI PRES SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUN MORN WITH LO LVL FLO BCMG
ESE. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES STATES...PUSHING A WARM FRONT NE TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MDLS DO HINT AT PSBL STRATUS EARLY SUN MRNG...ESP
OVR NE NC/SE VA...OTRW STARTING OUT SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY. XPCG
INCSG CLOUDS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN (FROM W-E). LATEST MDLS
AGREE W/ PREVIOUS RUN WRT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN. HAVE
CHC POPS AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM LKU-RIC-NTU BY 16-18Z
SUN...INCRSG TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FM ABT ECG-OFP ON W BY
00Z...WHILE KEEPING POPS AOB 20% ON THE ERN SHORE. HI TEMPS IN
THE M/U60S...WITH SOME L70S SE.

SIGNIFICANT INFLOW OF DP LYRD MOISTURE INTO THE RGN SUN NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT MAKES PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE FA. MAY BE PERIODS OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLD (ELEVATED)
THUNDER. THE AREA OF RAIN TO SHIFT OFF THE CST MON MRNG...W/
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY LATE MON AFTN (LIKELY
LEADING TO SCT SHWRS/TSTMS). WILL CONT TO HIGHLIGHT PSBL
STRONG/ISOLD SVR STORMS (IN HWO) FOR (LT) MON AFTN/EVE. OTW...VRB
CLOUDS-PARTLY SUNNY MIDDAY/AFTN ON MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AT THE CST...80 TO 85F ELSW.

CDFNT CROSSES THE FA MON NGT (W/ SCT POPS...HIGHEST NNE-CNTRL)...W/
DRYING/COOLER WLY FLO TAKING OVR INTO TUE. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TUE
W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U60S TO NR 70F AT THE CST...AND L/M70S ELSW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW REMAINS IN VIC OF THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD
THANKS TO BLOCKY FLOW OVER THE HIGHER LATITUDES. FAST WLY/ZONAL FLOW
PROGGED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE
STATES/SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE
WEDS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT IS A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
WEDS WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 60S TO 70 INLAND AND MID-
UPPER 60S COASTAL AREAS. POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
STACKED UPPER LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
ASSOCIATED FAST MOVING COLD FRONT REACHED THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
WEDS NIGHT...CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THURS. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL VIC NC THURS NIGHT DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE IS THURS AS ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND THE GFS
RATHER MOIST. DIFFERENCE IS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW IN GFS COMPARED TO
WLY FLOW IN THE ECMWF. TRENDED TOWARD DRIER ECMWF...DROPPING POPS TO
SILENT THURS-THURS NIGHT. HIGHS THURS REMAINING AROUND
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT-FRI...EXTENDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS...NWLY
WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S
INLAND TO UPPER 50S-LOW 60S COASTAL AREAS. MODELS PICKING UP ON A
SRN STREAM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SE STATES SAT. MENTIONED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SRN VA/NE NC...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BEST
MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SRN PA AT 00Z WILL MOVE S OVERNIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH MAY HELP TO PRODUCE SOME STRATUS OR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS. IFR
CONDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT NEAR THE COAST E OF ECG WHICH IS HANDLED
WELL BY THE NAM MOS. THE NAM MOS ALSO PUTS IFR AT ORF BY 00Z WHICH
WILL NOT HAPPEN...AT LEAST NOT THAT EARLY. NE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. RAIN OVERSPREADS
THE AREA (EXCEPT AT SBY) TOWARD THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. IFR
CONDS MAY DEVELOP SOON AFTER THE RAIN BEGINS PER THE GFS MOS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL AREAS...WITH PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME MONDAY.
ANOTHER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KT...SEAS 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT. LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS N-S ALONG THE
COAST. FRONT DROPS OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. SELECT HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS TO ~20 KT IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SURGE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT LIVED...SO WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSED PRODUCTS IF
NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RESULTANT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT
(MINUS THE UPPER JAMES). PERSISTENT NE FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT SUN
AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY SOONER). SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT...HELPING RAMP UP SPEEDS
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT ERN VA
RIVERS/SOUND. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH OF THE
WATERS MON WITH SLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. SCA HEADLINES
FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND DROP OFF LATE SUN NIGHT...BUT 4-6 FT SEAS
PERSIST THRU THE DAY MON. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS THRU 4TH PERIOD/MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MON-MON EVENING...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT-
TUES MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATE ATTM. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES-SRN MID ATLANTIC TUES-WEDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL MOST TIDAL GAGES.
COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND HIGH ASTRO TIDES (NEW MOON
PHASE) WILL PUSH MOST SITES OVER HAT DURING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. PORTIONS OF THE UPPER BAY AND OCEAN CITY WILL
APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630>636-638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM



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