Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 281138
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
638 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ MUCH QUIETER FLYING WX FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT THE RAIN AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
CONTINUES TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE TERMINALS TODAY AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
CLOUD COVER SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 KTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY VEER OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE PANHANDLES IS
STEADILY MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT ECHOS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WITH HIGHER RETURNS
SOUTH OF CHILDRESS. THESE LIGHT ECHOS ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT RAIN
TO DRIZZLE...SO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE WE SEE AN END TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL NOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIP FREE BY 10 AM.

CLOUD COVER COULD SLOW TEMPERATURES WARMING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT THEY SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY
THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OUT OF THE NORTH BY THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE NEAR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES, BUT THINK
LIGHT DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE FROST
THRESHOLD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BRING A RETURN OF NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS ON FRIDAY AND COULD ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXITING THE
ROCKIES TO BRING A RETURN TO STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND ALLOWS MORE
OF THE PANHANDLES TO SEE A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES. LIMITED INSTABILITY,
500 TO 1000 J/KG, AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL KEEP SEVERE CHANCES
LIMITED BUT NOT RULED OUT FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO. THE
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE DRYLINE IN CONJUNCTION WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
OF CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30KT (DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
YOU GO WITH) COULD ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. A LOT CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT THE
CHANCE IS THERE. PRECIP CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT DECENT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

05/14






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