Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191107
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
707 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY. A LARGE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
0645 AM UPDATE...JUST MADE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO MORNING
TEMPS, DEW POINTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOLLOWING A COOL START, TODAY WILL BE
ANOTHER NICE DAY HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 T0 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LATE IN
THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF
OUR NICE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED AND MUCH COOLER CHANGES IN STORE
FOR THE WORK WEEK. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHICH ARE DETAILED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. WE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE...EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES AND REACH EASTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OTHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL A
STRENGTHENING SE WIND FIELD IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH WINDS NEAR THE 925 MB LEVEL REACHING 35 TO 45 KNOTS
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE REACHING SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE
LAKE PLAIN.

FOR MONDAY, RAINY AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL MOVING OUT WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY THIS TIME WITH
UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER S/SE ZONES THROUGH NE PA INTO
THE CATSKILLS...IN PART DUE TO UPSLOPE EFFECTS. DESPITE THE BREAK
IN PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON, NOT EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT IN ANY REAL SUN
DUE TO SATURATED PROFILES OFF THE DECK AND THUS ONLY EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
REACHING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SO WE ADDED THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP, EXPECT GENERALLY COOL,GRAY,
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT
RANGE DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BUT NOT LOOKING AT ALL DAY RAIN FOR TUESDAY. IN FACT THERE SHOULD
BE ANOTHER LULL IN THE MORNING BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN DROP INTO THE 30S WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET FLAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
NO BIG CHANGES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH COOL WET WEATHER FOR
THE PERIOD. UPDATED WITH LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM LAKE HURON TO NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE
PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LATE WED/WED NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD
POOL ALOFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE COVERAGE.
AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. STEADY MAINLY LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN
BETWEEN 6 AND 9Z. ABOUT 3 HOURS LATER CIGS FALL TO MVFR. VSBYS MAY
FALL TO MVFR TOO. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY HERE THEN CLOUDS DO NOT
LOWER TO MID UNTIL EVENING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR E WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KTS EARLY. WINDS SHIFT TO
SE DURING THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
DURING THE EVENING FURTHER SPEED INCREASES TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AT 40 TO 60 KTS MIGHT NEED TO
ADD LLWS FOR TONIGHT WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

.OUTLOOK...

MON MORNING...MVFR CONTINUING WITH RAIN.

MON AFTN-THU...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP MON
NGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY AS AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S. WE WON`T QUITE MEET RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA HOWEVER EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE DAY ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN. SUNSHINE
WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON-
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A WETTING RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
FIRE WEATHER...


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