Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 281601
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1201 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND UP THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
WILL BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY AROUND 70 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE
GULF COAST...WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...HELPING TO BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CROSS FL AND TRACK
ALONG THE SC COAST NEARING THE OUTER BANKS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES LOWERING TOWARD
SUNRISE THURSDAY. A WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...SO
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM AS MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BEING TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY
AS COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
CHANCE FOR THUNDER CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW WITH HEATING POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS AND LINGERING MOISTURE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
AFTER 06Z WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE AGS/DNL TERMINAL AREAS.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN/DEVELOPING AND
LOWER CEILINGS FORECAST...MVFR...AT AGS/DNL TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG
THE GULF COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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