Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 012024
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS IS A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS
OPERATING...BUT UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL
MEANS. A PHONE LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE
UNABLE TO DIGITALLY RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. THE ISSUE IS OUT OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANDS...SO HOPEFULLY THE PHONE LINE
OR WHATEVER ISSUE IT IS WILL BE REPAIRED SOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE BEEN CONTACT WITH THE KHIB AIRPORT MANAGER WHO CAN
PROVIDE US OVER THE PHONE WITH OBSERVATIONS BEING REPORTED BY THE
ASOS BY LISTENING TO ITS SHORT RANGE RADIO. WE WILL BE USING THE
OCCASIONAL REPORTS FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE RESOLVED.

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY SSE WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION FOR WIND DIRECTION WAS AT KDLH WHICH HAD EAST WINDS DUE
TO THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KINL/KHIB/KBRD/KHYR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA BORDER MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE KDLH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING S TO SSW WINDS ALOFT. ADDED LLWS TO KDLH FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SSW WINDS
OF 40 KNOTS THAT WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NEAR KDLH AND KHYR. THE KHYR AREA HAS A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN KDLH. THERE COULD BE
VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED LLWS
FOR KHYR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SSW WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE LLWS ISSUES SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PREPARE FOR AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS.

THE WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 /  70   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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