Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 251806
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
106 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
REMAINS SOUTH OF IA. ALL MODELS ARE CLOSE TOGETHER WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. SAT PIX AND AND RADAR SHOW A NICELY ORGANIZED
UPPER LOW AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL IMPACT THE
SOUTH HALF TO THIRD OF IA THIS MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED PRECIP
OVER THE NORTH. WILL BACK DOWN A LITTLE ON POPS FAR NORTH.
INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND IS PAST
US BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS. WILL GO WITH THUNDER MOST
AREAS EARLY...DROPPING TO ISOLATED THUNDER LATER IN THE
MORNING...AND DROPPED THUNDER WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
BE COOL TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSED ON
TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY AND BENIGN
WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITHIN
THE WEAK CAA REGIME. OTHERWISE...LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND PROVIDES CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MEANDERS
SLOWLY EAST INTO TEXAS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS STRONGER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK BUT WITH A THE AFOREMENTIONED
CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF REGION BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF...THE SHORTWAVE HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL
THAN THE GFS. NEVERTHELESS...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH MISSOURI AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE AWAY
THE LOW CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE PROMINENT. THE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL


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