Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS66 KEKA 280015
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
515 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH PASSES OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE ALMOST CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST BRINGS DRY WEATHER TO
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE COAST WHERE
STRATUS HAS STUCK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRATUS IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LEADING TO
AREAS OF FOG. HOWEVER AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE TONIGHT SOME OF THE CLOUDS MAY LIFT AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT
LEAVING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS INLAND AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.
BUT EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWNWARD, THEY WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY AND AN ASSOCIATED VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING US SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEL NORTE
COUNTY. WILL EMPHASIZE THE ODDS OF THIS ARE LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ANY
QPF WILL BE BARELY MEASURABLE. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
US LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH, THE MODELS HINT AT
A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS OR MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK. BUT IT`S
TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE, THE
CONSMODEL WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IT
HAS THEM REMAINING SEASONAL ALONG THE COAST AND TRENDING BACK UP
(ABOVE NORMAL) ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MS/JT


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE MENDOCINO AND
SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COASTS AND SHOULD EXPAND BACK NORTH TOWARD CEC
AND ACV THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FOG
TO EXPECT TONIGHT AS CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. STILL...SOME DENSE FOG
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONSIDERING FOG IS EVIDENT ON COASTAL WEB CAMS. THE WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEL NORTE COUNTY ON TUESDAY.

VFR WILL PRIMARILY PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW
ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS TODAY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SUBDUED AT 4 TO 6 FEET
AND 8 TO 10 SECONDS...AS WINDS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
BRIEFLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOSTLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL
REINFORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND CAUSE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND
STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO
WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEA STATE WILL BE A BUILDING
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...WHICH IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THE END RESULT WILL LIKELY BE
QUICKLY BUILDING SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LOCALLY GENERATED SHORT PERIOD WAVES AND
MIDDLE PERIOD SWELL. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SURGE INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COUPLED WITH A
DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE YET AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH GALES LIKELY BY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ACROSS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN WATERS. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 AM TUESDAY...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN INNER WATERS BEGINNING AT 5 PM TUESDAY WHERE STRONGER
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP.
ALL ADVISORIES WILL EXTEND THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON IN AT
LEAST THE OUTER WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED INCREASING
WINDS/SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.