Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 181111
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
611 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE IFR/MVFR AROUND THE AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF KDRT AND WILL SHOW VCTS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
CONVECTION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION TO MOVE EAST THIS
MORNING AND THE ATMOSPHERE TO REENERGIZE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE I-35 TAF SITES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME THESE WOULD BE TO THE
TERMINALS WOULD BE AROUND 22-03Z. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A VCTS
FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT
IFR IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED ACROSS COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW ARE ANTICIPATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS AND ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AT LOWER LEVELS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRY-LINE
WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS AS STORMS FORM IN THE MOIST AND
WARM SECTOR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH AREA SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING ML CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500J/KG AND LI RANGING FROM -5 TO
-10 FOR LARGE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. PER SPC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY...IS UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

HIRES SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES ON TIMING AND AREAS OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY. THE HRRR STARTS CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS AN MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
MOVE TO THE EAST. THE TEXAS TECH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON FORMING
STORMS AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST AND OVER THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AREA. THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRY-LINE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOWHERE NEAR
TEXAS TECH MODEL. THEREFORE...THE SHORT-TERM/FIRST PERIOD CONSISTS
ON A BLEND OF THE HRRR/TEXAS TECH SOLUTIONS. BY LATER THIS
EVENING...MID LEVEL WESTERLY WILL TAKE OVER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHES TO THE EAST...MARKING THE END OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY. WITH A WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A NICE
WARMUP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS LINGERING INSTABILITY REMAINS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING TO COOL THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A CLEAR NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ON MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY AS WELL AS THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS BY
AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              81  61  89  57  76 /  40  40  -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  60  87  55  76 /  50  40  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     81  60  87  56  76 /  50  30   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  57  87  53  74 /  40  40  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  59  90  59  79 /  30  10   0  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        79  59  87  54  74 /  40  40  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             82  59  88  57  78 /  40  20   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  61  86  56  75 /  50  40   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   80  63  86  57  75 /  50  40  20  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       81  61  88  58  77 /  40  30   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           82  61  88  59  77 /  40  20  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.