Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 260937
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
337 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WITH PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING
AND FOG REPORTED AT MILES CITY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING BEGINNING TO
SPLIT ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS STILL EXPECTED TO GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER MONTANA BEFORE DEFLECTING
EAST. WITH REORGANIZATION OF THE TROF OCCURRING...SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS MORNING NOT YET CLEAR FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BUT EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. BEST FORCING
OCCURS TONIGHT AROUND THE LOWER YELLOWSTONE VALLEY AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS MONTANA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL SEE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND. EBERT


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH NE MONTANA ENJOYING THE
BENEFITS OF A STRONG AND WARM RIDGE WITH STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR A DRY AND WARM MID-WEEK PERIOD. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
SHOW UP WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH AND STORM
SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS THROUGH A STRONGER AND FASTER TROUGH
WHILE THE EC ADVERTISES A MUCH WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TROUGH.
BOTH MODEL PRECIP OUTPUT IS GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH
SOME AREAS OF BETTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.

INTO THE WEEKEND...IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE EC AND GFS
CAMPS GRADUALLY DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER INTO SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FLOW REGIMES THE GFS KEEPS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WHILE THE EC FLOW IS MORE ZONAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH SOME DECENT
PRECIP FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TRIED TO SHOW A GENERAL BLEND OF
THESE TWO CAMPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE REGULAR LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

A VERY WARM WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COMFORTABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WRAPS UP AND
OUT OF NE MONTANA...SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY CLEAR OUT TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG TO
DEVELOP. DECIDED TO HANDLE THIS WITH SOME TEMPO GROUPS...BUT SOME
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH MAY PREVENT THAT
FOG. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT KSDY AND KGDV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. BMICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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