Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 241032
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
330 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AREA WILL STAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST...AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS SITS TO OUR EAST OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY...SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THE NORTH SHOULD SEE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND REINFORCES THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD LOW
TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ABOVE
YESTERDAYS VALUES. LOWS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH THE
BEGINNINGS OF A SLOW WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH MONDAY...
RIDGE AXIS WILL ALONG THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER ON THANKSGIVING
DAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  SIMILAR AFTERNOON TEMPS NEARLY
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGH COUNTRY...PRIMARILY IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH.  GFS AND EC SHOWING MUCH
IMPROVED CONSENSUS REGARDING THE WEEKEND TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT
APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.  SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WEST SLOPE ON SATURDAY.  FRONT DOES NOT LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THIS TIME AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT
COULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FRONT THAT MANAGED A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY.  CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF COLORADO...LEAVING ONLY
A DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS SW COLORADO.  NOT EXACTLY THE MAKINGS OF
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...BUT COULD POSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES ON SUNDAY.  PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER
UTAH AND COLORADO ON MONDAY FOR DRY BUT COOL WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....EH
LONG TERM......PF
AVIATION.......PF




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