Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
000 FXUS65 KGJT 241032 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 330 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AREA WILL STAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST...AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS SITS TO OUR EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...THE NORTH SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND REINFORCES THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD LOW TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME CLIMBING ABOVE YESTERDAYS VALUES. LOWS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A SLOW WARMING TREND BY WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH MONDAY... RIDGE AXIS WILL ALONG THE UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER ON THANKSGIVING DAY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR AFTERNOON TEMPS NEARLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE HIGH COUNTRY...PRIMARILY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. GFS AND EC SHOWING MUCH IMPROVED CONSENSUS REGARDING THE WEEKEND TROUGH THAT SPLITS AS IT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WEST SLOPE ON SATURDAY. FRONT DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THIS TIME AND SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FRONT THAT MANAGED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF COLORADO...LEAVING ONLY A DEFORMATION AXIS ACROSS SW COLORADO. NOT EXACTLY THE MAKINGS OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM...BUT COULD POSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ON SUNDAY. PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER UTAH AND COLORADO ON MONDAY FOR DRY BUT COOL WEATHER. && .AVIATION... VFR EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....EH LONG TERM......PF AVIATION.......PF