Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 062318 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WAS BARELY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW NOW OCCURRING. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 80
TO 85 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE MODELS KEEP THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN END OF THE SURFACE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WE CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S THROUGH SATURDAY. BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
INVOLVING MOVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST ALABAMA AREA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE
INCREASED AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED
INVOLVING THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMPARED TO THE DRIER
GFS MODEL SOLUTION. WILL FOR NOW TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER INVOLVING
THE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VSBYS AT THE KMSL TERMINAL
TO BELOW 2 SM THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY GREATER.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF FOR NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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