Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 041107
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
706 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN
WARM AND BECOME MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND THIS EVENING/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE BIGGEST FOCUS TODAY
ALONG WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
WAS FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO WESTERN KANSAS. BLEND BRINGS THE FRONT
TO JUST NORTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO DODGE CITY LINE BY 12Z AND THEN TO
NEAR AN ANGOLA TO RENSSELAER LINE BY 00Z TONIGHT. ALL 00Z MODELS AND
THE RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALL SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION AROUND JUST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF A MUNCIE
TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH GOOD CHANCE THERE AND TAPERING OFF TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES TO 1000 J/KG OR SO WITHIN A BELT OF A 25 KNOT
850 MILLIBAR WINDS...MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE RISKS. UNI-DIRECTIONAL
WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRECLUDES A BIGGER RISK.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW
BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S PER 00Z MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AND IF OR WHEN TO
PULL THEM.

COULD BE A LATE EVENING LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT IT
SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT NORTH TO COVER THAT AND TAPER
TO NO POPS FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IF OVERNIGHT STORM OUTFLOW
HAS ITS WAY. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH
THOUGH...DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THEN...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MANITOBA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FRONT AS IT IS NUDGED NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH 00Z
MODELS CARRY SOME QPF AFTER TUESDAY...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT ON. MEANWHILE FOR TUESDAY...WILL CONFINE POPS TO NORTH
OF A GREENSBURG TO TERRE HAUTE LINE WITH THE BEST POPS NORTH OF
LAFAYETTE AND KOKOMO.

BESIDES AFTERNOON CU...SHOULD BE DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY PER MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. WILL BE ABLE TO START THE PERIOD DRY BUT WILL REQUIRE
CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS FROM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH
THE 80 DEGREE MARK LIKELY MOST DAYS. INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS
WELL AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 04/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS/POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED
IN NATURE AND VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME...SO WILL HANDLE LARGELY WITH
VICINITY MENTIONS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS LARGELY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WITH SOME GUSTS PUSHING 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. NO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

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