Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 031503
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1103 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPDATED AGAIN TO BLEND MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST...WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO REMOVED FOG MENTION...AS THIS HAS BEEN A LOT MORE RESTRICTED
TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...FLATTENING FLOW IS ON TAP...WITH
MODEST RIDGING CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS TEXAS...AND A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SKIRTING THE U.S./CANTON BORDER...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
WEAKER SHORT WAVES WOBBLING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN KENTUCKY
VALLEYS...WITH LOW TO MID 40S CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MOST RIDGETOPS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...AS RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ALOFT...ALLOWING THE SURFACE
HIGH TO SHIFT EAST...SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
MONDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
WARMTH...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT NEAR 80 TODAY...AND LOW 80S ON
MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
VALLEYS...TO THE MID 50S ON THE RIDGETOPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND
POINTS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...IN ADDITION TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW...WITH MID 80S LIKELY BY MID AND LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MOISTURE INFLUX. THIS WILL
KEEP RH LEVELS RELATIVELY LOW COMPARATIVELY. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO
THIS...AS HAS BEEN PROJECTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IS THAT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT AND SUCH WARM TEMPERATURES
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED POP DEVELOPMENT. IT STILL APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE FAR SE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THE RIDGING PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A BIT.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS ARE STILL NOT SUPPORTING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ANYTHING OF CONCERN OR OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. AS SUCH...KEPT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VERY LOW QPF VALUES. WE
SHOULD SEE VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING AS YOU WOULD EXPECT UNDER THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...BESIDES SOME PATCHY IFR OR WORSE FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 06
AND 13Z. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW AND RESTRICTED TO THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE AREA...STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF
SITES. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGHER BASED STRATOCU WILL BE SEEN ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 6 TO 8K FEET AGL RANGE.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE AT 5 KTS OR LESS...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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