Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 272006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK..A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS LOW WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE NIGHT AND MORNING
CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...WARM START TO THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SANTA
ANA WINDS TODAY IN VENTURA/LA COUNTIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THE REST OF THE
WEEK BUT LINGERING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S AT LEAST FOR THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THU. BEACHES WILL SEE A LITTLE COOLING BY WED
AS GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE BUT IT WILL STILL BE 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE COAST AND 10-15 ABOVE FOR THE INLAND AREAS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WED/THU.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...TROFFING WILL REPLACE RIDGING LATE IN THE
WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY WITH MARINE LYR CLOUDS
RETURNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY
BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z.

AT 1714Z AT KLAX...A WEAK INVERSION WAS BASED AT 300 FEET WITH THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AT 1000 FEET AND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY IN VENTURA
COUNTY AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THROUGH MIDDAY LLWS/TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM.
MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SUBSTANDARD THIS MORNING. A LATE SURGE OF SANTA
ANA WINDS FORCED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THIS
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GETTING RAISED IN THE INNER
WATERS FOR NE WINDS FROM VENTURA TO SANTA MONICA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL 3 PM. IN THE OUTER WATERS CONDITIONS HAVE SUBSIDED SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK TO 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE WARNING CONDITIONS IN THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A GALE WATCH POSTED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...27/930 AM
A BURST OF GUSTY SANTA WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO
BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES TODAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90
DEGREES IN WARMEST COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES...AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DURATIONS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE WIND TRANSITION
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
FIRE...GOMBERG
SYNOPSIS...JLD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES





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