Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 190454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRENDS INDICATE PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT FOR THE AREA BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL AWAIT MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCDS...MORE COMPLEX WITH PLAY OF OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH RETREATING DRYLINE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. BELIEVE CURRENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BACK TO THE EAST OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE NIGHT. STILL A THREAT FOR FOG AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND THIS COULD GO DOWN IN A HURRY SHOULD THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACTUALLY DEVELOP AT KCDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO DOMINATING AT KCDS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05


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