Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 242340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LITTLE IF ANY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND STILL STRUGGLING
TO MAKE ITS ANTICIPATED PUSH INTO ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY
TO MAKE ITS MOVE BUT NOW LIKELY AFTER DARK AND SITUATION COULD BE
ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HAVE ALSO STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT
BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE SOUTH ARKANSAS WOULD THE AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL TO END LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
SATURDAY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUXUATE WILDLY WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED OM SUNDAY AND COOLER YET ON
MONDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  84  56  72 /  70  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  88  61  87 /  80  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       59  81  53  70 /  50  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  85  59  84 /  80  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  86  60  79 /  80  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  87  63  85 /  80  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      63  85  58  84 /  80  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  82  54  70 /  60  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  84  57  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  86  61  82 /  80  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  85  57  79 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  85  58  75 /  80  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      63  85  60  79 /  80  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




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