Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 172326
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  74  89 /  40  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  89 /  20  40  30  30
MIAMI            75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           74  87  73  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.