Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 260827
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...MCS THAT PROPAGATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
LATE LAST EVENING RAPIDLY FELL APART AS IT TRAVERSED THE PENINSULA
BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AS IT RACED OFFSHORE.

THE DRIVING SYNOPTIC FEATURE REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE LOW/TROUGH
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH THE
CENTER SLOWLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. TROUGH
AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT DRY AIR LAYER REMAINS
BETWEEN 850-500MB. WHILE MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
MODIFY THIS SOMEWHAT...MOST MODELS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER WITH
POPS...NOW MORE ALONG THE LINES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR TODAY. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF COVERAGE
WELL BELOW WHAT MODELS HAVE SHOWN.

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE/VOLUSIA AS THE TROUGH DROPS IN...BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHWARDS. ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STEERING FLOW A
ROBUST 40 TO 45 KNOTS.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY APPROACH RECORDS ALONG THE COAST DEPENDING
ON THE ONSET OF HEAVIER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS IN THE 70S.

MON-WED...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA MON...STALLING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KSGJ AND KXMR THRU EARLY
TUE. A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS
TO OPEN UP AS IT REACHES THE TN/OH VALLEYS WED. AS THIS OCCURS...A
SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE NWRN GULF AND SLIDES EWD TO NEAR MOBILE
BAY TUE EVENING AND THEN ENE ACROSS SRN GA AND INTO THE ATLC. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FL TUE NIGHT WITH THE LOW
SWINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHCS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY (40-50) AND EVEN MORE SO TUE THROUGH
WED (60). OF NOTE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE GFS TRENDED
PRETTY FIRMLY IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STRONGER ECM SOLUTION...WHICH
NECESSITATED LOWERING POPS STARTING WED NIGHT.

MAXES IN THE M-U80S ON MON FALL BACK INTO THE U70S-L80S TUE OVER ALL
BUT THE FAR SRN CWA TUE AS CLOUDS/PRECIP ASCD WITH THE STALLED BDRY
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE WARMER WED WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TAPERING OFF FROM NW-SE WED NIGHT.

THU-SAT...THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO THU (MAINLY EARLY) AS A
WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH FRI/FRI NIGHT.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
FL ELONGATES EWD. COULD SEE A SMALL COASTAL SHOWERS THREAT DEVELOP
BUT RATHER EARLY TO GAUGE THE STRENGTH OF EASTERLIES THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS
THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE NORTH OF KISM-KEVB
AFTER 12Z...BECOMING WDLY SCT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AFTER 17Z.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA. GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15KTS THIS EVENING.

&&

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
WITH BUOY 41009 REPORTING 15-20KTS AND BUOY 41010 20-25KTS...WHICH
SUPPORTS THE ONGOING SCA FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS MORNING. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AND EASING TO AROUND 15KTS. WINDS INCREASE
OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS 2-3FT
NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... BRIEFLY SUBSIDING TO 2-
3FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT WESTERLY WIND PUSH DRIVES SEAS BACK
UP LATE TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP DOMINANT PERIODS SHORT AND
CHOPPY.

MON-THU..."BACK DOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS
DURING THE DAY...WITH STOUT WRLY FLOW BEING DISPLACED SWD/WEAKENING
BY THE NRLY WIND SHIFT OOZING INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. FAIRLY
SLACK WINDS VEER QUICKLY BACK AROUND TO NE AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
FLOW INCREASING SOME OUT OF THE E-ESE TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN U.S SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS VEER TO S-SW WED AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NERN GOMEX TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY WED
NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO 20-25KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THU BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
KEEP OFFSHORE SEAS BELOW 7FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND
TRANSPORT WINDS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S...HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR RH
VALUES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. ERC VALUES
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES WILL BE IN
PLACE THOUGH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRES MAY EXPERIENCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...SUN APRIL 26...

DAYTONA BEACH...93F
ORLANDO.........98F
MELBOURNE.......92F
VERO BEACH......95F

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  72  80  66 /  40  30  30  40
MCO  90  73  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
MLB  93  74  84  68 /  20  30  40  30
VRB  93  73  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  88  72  83  66 /  40  30  50  40
SFB  89  74  84  66 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  75  85  68 /  30  30  50  30
FPR  93  72  86  68 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI


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