Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 031250
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
850 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TODAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY CIRRUS TO HOLD THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT AS
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO YIELD MID LEVEL RELATIVE MOISTURE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE MONDAY
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS UP OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES.

THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES OVER THE
UPPER OHIO REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY...BUT
IMPROVED MOISTURE...MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING...AND AFTERNOON
WARMTH MAY SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. EASTWARD SHIFTING SURFACE RIDGE WITH
PLAINS TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WIND.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GENERAL RESTRICTIONS WILL COME WITH A TUESDAY
FRONTAL ENCROACHMENT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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