Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
000 FXUS65 KPUB 251203 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 503 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DELIVER GLANCING BLOW TODAY... A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS HOUR. MAIN IMPACTS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL INCLUDE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TRYING TO SCOOT SOUTHWARD AT THIS TIME. THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS COULD GET CLIPPED BY THESE BRIEFLY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. LW .LONG TERM... (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION THRU FRI...PRODUCING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN INCREASING MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BOTH DAYS...NO CHANGES MADE. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SURPRISINGLY AGREEABLE ON THE LONG TERM SOLUTION...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO FORECAST TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST FRI NIGHT STRENGTHENS AND SPANS FROM CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BACK DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CA...WITH TWO DEFINED AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. ONE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CA SAT MORNING...WHILE THE NORTHERN LOW SLOWLY DROPS DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST...AND THE SOUTHERN LOW WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CWA TRACKS ACROSS AZ AND NM ON SUN...THEN MOVES ACROSS TX ON MON. THEREFORE...THE ONSET OF PCPN SEEMS TO BE SAT MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD...THEN SPREADS EAST ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THRU THE AFTN. A GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN ALL AREAS ON SUN...THEN COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MON MORNING. AS THE TROUGH EXITS...COLDER N FLOW SETTLES IN FOR MON AND TUE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MIDDAY SAT...SO ADJUSTED GRIDS TO SHOW COLDER TEMPS BEGINNING SAT AND LASTING THRU TUE...AS WELL AS INCREASED POPS FOR THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. PAINTED NIL POPS STARTING MON...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE AGAIN IF MODELS START HINTING AT A SLOWDOWN OF THIS SYSTEM. MOORE && .AVIATION... VFR EXPECTED ALL SITES. HOWEVER...SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BRIEFLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES BY. LW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 50/27