Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 260009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THRU 04Z...WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING GENERAL IFR IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AFTER 04Z...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING IFR
CEILINGS IN LIGHT RAIN TIL AROUND 13Z...THEN IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO VFR BY 22Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB-EKN LINE...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TIL
AROUND 03Z...OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS THRU 08Z. AFTER 08Z BECOMING
VFR AND SCT CLDS BY 16Z.

REMAINDER OF AREA...MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...LIFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THRU 04Z. AFTER 04Z IFR IN LIGHT RAIN. AFTER 09Z IMPROVING TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND THEN TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 15Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORECAST CONDITIONS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH
SOMEWHAT...DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV










USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.