Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 032036
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
336 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Last quiet period before what will hopefully be a wetter week coming
up across West Central Texas. Low level moisture has returned, with
dewpoints in the mid 50s this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 60s are in
place across portions of the hill country. As southerly winds
continue, this better moisture will advect into the area and help
keep overnight temperatures warmer than they were this morning. Will
continue the forecast of low to mid 60s areawide.

For Monday, more cloud cover for the day and the latest TTU WRF
suggests some scattered warm advection showers and storms across
much of the area. This should be fairly brief and light, but did
boost PoPs slightly to account for it. Afternoon highs will be kept
down a couple degrees by the cloud cover as well.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night-Sunday)

Look for chances for thunderstorms to continue through next
weekend! It will be very difficult to pin point the exact time and
location for each convective episode.

A few thunderstorms forming along the dryline across far West
Texas tomorrow evening could move east into Crockett County
tomorrow night. But Tuesday looks to be the best day for
thunderstorms for West Central Texas as a strong upper level
disturbance moves across the area. Have continued 50-65 Pops for
Tuesday through Tuesday night. A few of these storms could become
severe and produce large hail and damaging winds with 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-45 kts and MU CAPE values approaching 2000 J/KG. The
best lift should move across West Central Texas after 00Z/7PM
Tuesday.

We should see a break on Wednesday with just a few showers or
thunderstorms. Then scattered thunderstorms strong to severe thunderstorms
possible Thursday through Friday as upper level disturbances in
the southwest flow aloft move northeast and interact with the
dryline.  A better chance for thunderstorms will continue for next
Saturday as another shortwave trough approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  61  81  62  76  63 /  10  20  30  60  60
San Angelo  64  83  62  77  64 /  10  20  40  50  50
Junction  64  82  63  78  65 /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/26




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