Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 060803
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF FLORIDA EAST
COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY TAKING BEST RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT. FOR TODAY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION AFFECTING MAINLY
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NOT EXPECTING
TO SEE THAT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE THEREFORE
ONLY GONE WITH 20 TO 40 POPS FOR TODAY AND THIS IS PROBABLY TOO
HIGH FOR MOST AREAS. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY WITH DRY AIR...PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1
INCH...WRAPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP READINGS A LITTLE COOLER...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW SHOWING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. WHATEVER
REMAINS OF THIS FEATURE AFTER SUNDAY GETS PULLED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DRY AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA...KEEPING MOST OF THE REGION RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND GETS PULLED NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THERE ARE NO
SYNOPTICALLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES POISED TO AFFECT OUR REGION
AFTER THAT TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING 90 DEGREE HIGHS TO THE INTERIOR AWAY
FROM THE COOLING EFFECTS OF OUR SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST TODAY AND
GENERALLY PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON INCREASING SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST.
IN GENERAL THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  69  85  70 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  88  67  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  87  66  88  66 /  30  10   0  10
SRQ  85  66  85  68 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  87  61  87  60 /  20  10   0   0
SPG  86  72  86  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



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