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000 FXUS65 KTFX 250021 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 521 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE RESULTING IN PREDOMINANT WESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN HIGH WINDS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING EXPECTED. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW UNTIL NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MLS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BUT IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BRING IT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG SO INHERITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOKS FINE. BEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SO WENT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THERE. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OR TWO IN THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL WAS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF COMPUTER RUN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THE LATEST GFS RUN IS NOW IN RELATIVELY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF COMPUTER RUN. WHEREAS THE UPPER TROUGH OF LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN THE UPPER TROUGH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL COME FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL LIKELY BE COLDER. AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THIS COOL DOWN DID NOT GO REALLY COLD BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECASTS. BLANK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 2310Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS ACROSS THE KLWT REGION. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 30 53 39 58 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 28 52 37 55 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 24 48 28 50 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 17 42 18 44 / 20 0 0 0 WEY 10 34 13 36 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 20 42 24 44 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 17 52 31 61 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 19 49 30 57 / 20 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
