Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 190030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Apr 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C5/1n
flare at 18/1419 UTC associated with a filament eruption near Region
2321 (N11W22, Eac/beta-gamma). The 7 degree long filament, centered near
N05W16, resulted in an asymmetric, faint full-halo CME, first visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1524 UTC. Analysis is ongoing to determine
the possible geo-effectiveness of this CME. Region 2321 also produced a
C2/Sf at 18/1825 UTC.

Region 2325 (N05E18, Cai/beta) also produced low level C-class activity.
Region 2324 (N19E08, Dko/beta-gamma) showed slight growth and increased
magnetic complexity but remained relatively quiet. New Region 2328
(S02W69, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flare activity for the next three days (19-21 Apr).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
reaching a peak flux of 3,740 pfu at 18/1640 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels over the next three days (19-21 Apr). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor)over the next three days (19-21 Apr).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a return to nominal conditions. Solar
wind velocities steadily decreased from initial values near 600 km/s to
end-of-period values near 475 km/s. IMF total field values were steady
between 2-6 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -5 nT
during the period. The phi angle was generally steady in a negative
(toward the Sun) solar sector orientation with some short deviations to
positive late in the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day
one (19 Apr). Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced once
again on days two and three (20-21 Apr) as a recurrent positive polarity
CH HSS becomes geoeffective.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under a nominal solar wind
regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (19 Apr) with quiet to active conditions (Below
G1-Minor) expected on days two and three (20-21 Apr) due to the
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.



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