Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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WVC025-055-063-089-211815-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...FINAL

...FLOOD POTENTIAL NEAR NORMAL...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH AND FINAL SCHEDULED RELEASE IN A SERIES OF
ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING) ACROSS THE BLACKSBURG HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THE
HSA INCLUDES ALL OR PARTS OF THE JAMES...ROANOKE...UPPER
YADKIN...GREENBRIER...NEW ...CLINCH AND HOLSTON RIVER BASINS IN
WESTERN VIRGINIA... SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA.

THESE STATEMENTS PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS FACTORS. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE
PERIOD THROUGH APRIL 2ND 2015.

FOR THE BLACKSBURG HSA THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DURING THE OUTLOOK
PERIOD IS NEAR NORMAL...WITH HEAVY RAIN NEEDED TO CAUSE FLOODING.

IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...IT IS HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO RIVER FLOODING. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF THE
YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW.

CURRENT FLOODING...

NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.

RECENT PRECIPITATION...

MARCH PRECIPITATION TO DATE HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. AMOUNTS SO FAR IN MARCH HAVE
RANGED FROM AROUND 1.50 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA UP TO AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AS A
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 75
TO 150 PERCENT.

FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION WAS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL WITH 2.51 INCHES
VERSUS THE 30-YEAR MEAN OF 3.03 INCHES OR 83 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

WINTER (DEC-FEB) PRECIPITATION WAS 7.24 INCHES OR 74 PERCENT OF
THE SEASONAL NORMAL OF 9.72 INCHES

FALL 2014 (SEP-NOV) PRECIPITATION FALL WAS ALMOST EXACTLY NORMAL
WITH 10.54 INCHES VERSUS THE NORMAL OF 10.38 INCHES.

DROUGHT...

ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE LATEST WEEKLY U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR MAP AND COVER MUCH THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE UPPER JAMES...GREENBRIER BASIN IN WEST VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF
THE LOWER DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE BASINS. 60- TO 90-DAY
PRECIPITATION IN MUCH OF THE D0 AREAS IS ONLY 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PLEASE SEE DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
DROUGHT.

SNOW COVER...

SNOW COVER HAS BEEN REDUCED TO ZERO ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW PATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE ALLEGHENIES OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE SEE WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SNOW
COVER.

RIVER ICE...

ALL THE RIVER ICE HAS BROKEN UP OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND
WILL NOT BE A FACTOR IN ANY FUTURE FLOODING.

STREAMFLOW...

STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT
BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST AND SOUTH...REFLECTING THE PERSISTENT
LONGER-TERM DEFICITS IN PRECIPITATION.

PLEASE SEE WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV FOR MORE STREAMFLOW INFORMATION.

SOIL MOISTURE...

THE LATEST CPC SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SMALL
AREA OF BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IN THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH THAT AREA
SHOWING A DEFICIT OF 20 MM OR NEARLY ONE INCH.

PLEASE SEE WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE SOIL MOISTURE AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION.

THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON EXPERIMENTAL SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS
ALSO SHOWS THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS
PARTS OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
INTO THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. AN AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA.

THIS DATA CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.HYDRO.WASHINGTON.EDU/FORECAST/MONITOR/INDEX.SHTML

RESERVOIRS...

ALL MAJOR RESERVOIRS SERVING THE HSA REMAIN NEAR GUIDE CURVES
AND/OR CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

A MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT (AND SOME SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH) IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD WITH LIQUID
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE HSA.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING. NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE HSA IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE 7-DAY PERIOD.

LONG TERM OUTLOOKS (6-10 AND 8-14 DAY) FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER VALID THROUGH MARCH 28 AND APRIL 1 SHOW A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

REPEATING THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE 2-WEEK
OUTLOOK PERIOD: NEAR NORMAL.

THIS IS THE FINAL SCHEDULED RELEASE OF THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
OUTLOOK FOR 2015. AN OPTIONAL OUTLOOK WOULD BE ISSUED APRIL 2 AND
BI-WEEKLY THEREAFTER IF CHANGING CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER OR HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BLACKSBURG


$$

PC



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