Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FNUS71 KALY 051423
FWSALY

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOR SULLIVAN ULSTER FIRE...FEMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1023 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1021 EDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL /GREATER THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ HAS NOT
OCCURRED IN WELL OVER A WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AND STATE OFFICIALS
HAVE NOTED THAT FOREST FUELS ARE RATHER DRY AT THIS TIME.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. MOST AREAS WILL WIND
UP STAYING DRY AND NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATER TODAY...AND
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUDY TO START THE DAY TODAY...SOME CLEARING
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. THE WIND TODAY WILL BE LIGHT...BECOMING
NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP 25
TO 50 PERCENT ON WED AFTN...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN NORTHERN
AREAS...AND HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHERE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATE WED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY DURING
THE AFTN HOURS WITH WARM TEMPS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............47.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6200-7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 8 TO 14 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 3
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEST
                    LATE.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (9900-27700 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH.
CWR.................20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............42...DECREASING TO 41 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH.
SURFACE WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (2500-27700 KNOT-FT).

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 7 MPH LATE.
CWR.................50 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............45.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 7 MPH LATE.
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH
                    AROUND 7 MPH LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 1 TO
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO POOR (2500-4000 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...DIRIENZO
REQUESTED BY...WATCH OFFICER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150505.SULLI.01/ALY



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