Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FNUS73 KGID 031258
FWSGID

SPOT FORECAST FOR KIRWIN SOUTH PILES...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
758 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE DAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH FROM NEBRASKA. WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD FAVOR
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION...THEN AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
CLOSER TO THE BURN SITE THE WINDS VARY MORE SO IN DIRECTION
WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING LIGHT.

MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 11 AM CDT AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR
25 PERCENT.

THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 5 PM.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92 AT 5 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 PERCENT AT 5 PM.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 13000 FT
                    AGL BY 5 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO 6 TO 10 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........31     33     42     52
WEATHER COV.....              CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........              CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP............85     91     92     86
RH..............29     24     24     32
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 5    SE 5   SE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....6      6      6      6

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58 AT 7 AM MONDAY.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT AT 7 AM MONDAY.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10400 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    300 FT AGL BY 7 AM MONDAY.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND
                    10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........55     65     78     89     88     87
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
TEMP............82     73     66     62     61     59
RH..............38     53     70     84     87     90
20 FT WIND......SE 4   SE 6   S 5    W 2    N 4    NE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     10     5      10     15
HAINES INDEX....6      5      5      5      4      4

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76 AT 5 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT AT 5 PM.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL MONDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL
                    BY 5 PM MONDAY.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........86     87     87     88     88     88
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP............58     62     67     72     76     73
RH..............93     84     75     66     56     59
20 FT WIND......NE 6   E 7    E 7    E 6    E 7    E 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...NWS
REQUESTED BY...ANDY SCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150503.KIRWI.01/GID



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