Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 251613
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1113 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Have sent a small update to the forecast to account for precipitation
trends and where the best chances for renewed convection may exist
this afternoon. Surface analysis shows the surface low basically over
the KC metro with a warm front extending eastward roughly along the
MO river. This boundary is going to need to be watched for possible
renewed convection. The NAM and the RAP both show strong convergence
along this boundary later today with the NAM showing decent buildup
of instability right along the boundary. Cold 500mb temperatures of
-15C to -17C will aid in stretching any potential updraft. These
parameters are favorable for potential funnels this afternoon.
However there are some weaknesses. The position/orientation of the
surface low nearly under to potentially behind the 500mb low and the
opening of the upper low itself may be problematic for these hard to
predict events. Given the strength of the convergence along the
boundary and the strong shearing associated with boundary, if an
updraft can root on the boundary, I would not be surprised to reports
of funnel clouds stream in. The greatest potential for this will be
roughly along the I-70 corridor in our eastern zones. Have increased
PoPs in this area based short term model trends for the afternoon and
then quickly dissipate them this evening when any surface heating is
lost.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Remnants of Friday`s severe weather across central Kansas is
currently moving through the area, and is rather weak. Scattered
thunderstorms are located across most of northwest Missouri and
northeast Kansas, but lack of any appreciable instability has kept
these storms from becoming more than a brief shower as they roll
through. Surface analysis around 08z indicates that the surface low
is still to the west of the forecast area, and that is also
represented by general southeasterly surface winds across most of
the area. While the sun is still down these showers will remain
relatively light, but as the day wears on and the mid level trough -
which is currently stacked on top of the aforementioned low just
west of here - rolls through the area more scattered showers will
form. There should be a slightly higher level of instability across
the area today, with the cooler temperatures associated with the mid
level trough overhead. So, some storms could grow tall and produce
some small hail. As the mid level trough moves through, it generally
opens up and loses some of its organization. The areas of low
pressure within the column also become a bit disjointed through the
day, so a traditional cold core thunderstorm/funnel day does not
appear to be in the cards, but a few storms through the day could
produce some small hail, and periods of heavy rain and gusty winds.
The focus for thunderstorm activity will be along a sagging cold
front that will drop south along with the surface low. The enhanced
convergence along that boundary should aid in getting storms fired
up. The boundary will initially be located north of the forecast
area, but by noon should be located along/near Interstate 70. By
tonight the cold front will be located south of the area, with a
surface ridge nosing in. This will effectively scour out the
moisture, and end any precipitation chances, likely by tonight.

With the cool dry air working its way into the area the next few
nights could be chilly, with lows in the upper 30s along the IA/MO
border, and 40s farther south. But with good insolation through the
day highs for the rest of the weekend and into next week will follow
a gradual warming trend, with 60s anticipated through early next
week, then well into the 70s by late next week. With shortwave
ridging over the area, despite the warmer and moister air moving in
through the late part of the week mid level ascent will be lacking
and low level convergence triggers will be absent, thus a dry
forecast is on tap throughout the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in and around the
aviation terminals through at least the mid morning hours before
moving out of the area. Expect ceilings to bounce between MVFR and
VFR through that time period, with a gradual deterioration to
prevailing MVFR conditions up on frontal passage around 16z. Expect
the stratus to remain over the area through the remainder of the
forecast period. Guidance does suggest that CIGs will come down to
IFR levels late in the forecast period, but for now will keep things
in MVFR.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton






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