Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 011729

1229 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

Issued at 316 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

Today through Saturday night: Weak cold front associated with
Northern Plains shortwave trough will move eastward today before
stalling over Nebraska/Iowa as the upper support exits the area. The
end result will be to keep any light shower chances mostly north of
the CWA, with only slight chances of showers along/north of Highway
36. Light southerly winds will return today as high pressure shifts
to the east. Afternoon temperatures will warm into 70s over the
entire forecast area. Several model members suggest a shallow
amplified shortwave trough to approach overnight/Saturday, and this
weak ascent along with the near-mixed out frontal boundary may help
spawn some areas of precipitation, mainly across northern Missouri.
Instability will gradually increase by Saturday, albeit still meager
in nature, so a rumble of thunder is possible. Still, the theme for
Friday into Saturday is warm weather with only slight chances for
precipitation over northern Missouri.

Sunday into late next week: A more notable trough skirting the
US/Canada border will send a cold front into the area by Sunday
night. Upon the departure of this system, large scale ridging
develops over the Central US, leaving the frontal boundary
relatively stationary near/over the CWA through Tuesday. This will
provide at least some potential for convection through the period.
With weak tropospheric winds and modest instability, the overall
threat for severe weather is low. By mid-week, models show a
negatively-tilted shortwave trough to eject into the Plains, but the
track and timing remains uncertain. That said, at least some chances
of convective episodes are expected, especially with the ejection of
the aforementioned upper wave. Uncertainty increases thereafter as
spread in the upper pattern grows. As for temperatures, above normal
readings are expected to continue, with highs in the 70s and 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR conditions with light southerly winds.

A band of mainly mid-level cloudiness will drape across mainly the
northern half of MO/northeast KS during this forecast period.
Isolated light showers/sprinkles possible within this band. Best
chance for any very light rain at the terminals would come Saturday




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